US-Mexico trade growth to remain steady in 2023, bolstered by nearshoring

2022 was a critical year for trade relations between the United States and Mexico, bolstered by improving supply chain conditions and resilient U.S. demand for Mexican-made exports.

Business ties and investment links between the two countries remained strong throughout the year, despite being tested by everything from supply chain disruptions to chip shortages and trade disputes. 

For the first 10 months of the year, cross-border commerce between the U.S. and Mexico totaled $656 billion, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau figures analyzed by WorldCity. That’s a decline of less than 1% year over year compared to the same period in 2021, when pandemic-related consumer spending produced record-breaking cross-border freight flows.

As the new year approaches, cross-border operators and logistics professionals said 2023 cross-border freight flows should remain strong throughout the year, held up by reshoring and nearshoring of manufacturing operations to North America, particularly Mexico.

“I believe cross-border volumes will be resilient and grow year over year in contrast to a sharp decline in U.S. domestic volumes we are currently seeing,” said Jordan Dewart, president of logistics operator Redwood Mexico. “Nearshoring efforts of companies trying to avoid a repeat of the Asia-trans-Pacific fiasco that occurred during the COVID [pandemic] can already be seen.”

Here are the top U.S.-Mexico trade trends at the start of 2023: